The power demand and streamlined structure of power sources is noted in all countries. Especially in the context of increasingly fierce climate change and many traditional energy sources are on the verge of exhaustion. Countries are transforming energy use towards a sustainable direction and increasingly ensuring social justice. Content of calculation, determination of demand and structure for optimal and reasonable use of national power sources for sustainable development for Vietnam is an urgent requirement at present.

Some features of the National Electricity Strategy and Planning

In the whole process of electricity development in Vietnam up to now (in 2020), we have built two national energy development strategies (in 2007 and 2020); 7 National Electricity Development Plan (PDP); Besides, there are 5 coal industry development plans (master plan); 3 Oil and gas development planning (QHDK); a Renewable Energy (RE) Plan.

In general, these strategies and plans have oriented and outlined important contents for the development of the country’s energy sector. However, it also shows methodological shortcomings, lack of systematization, lack of calculation data, until the construction, appraisal and implementation procedures, usually only done for a few years, requires adjustment. !

Below are some shortcomings in the recent power planning and energy strategy, for more details [1, 2].

And some other general criteria:

1 / Build smart and efficient grid system. By 2030, electricity supply reliability will be in the top four ASEAN countries, the electricity access index will be in the top three ASEAN countries.

2 / Oil refineries meet at least 70% of domestic demand; ensure strategic oil reserves at least 90 days of net import, enough capacity to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) of about 8 billion m3 by 2030 and about 15 billion m3 by 2045.

Reference document on the Orientation of the NLV to 2030, vision 2045 – Department of Information Technology, Publisher – University of Economics and Business, 2020 [9], this document is prepared meticulously by a large group of scientific and managerial staff, with nearly 300 pages, edited into 5 chapters, 11 appendices, although popular after NQ55, but it can be understood that this document is the document as the basis for NQ55. The resolution, of course, needs to be briefly presented, and the reference documents should be presented with arguments, even general and scientific calculations; Therefore, some of the content readers are not really comfortable with, namely:

First: There has not been a base reference for forecast of primary energy demand, primary energy, electricity … in 2030 and 2045.

Second: Similarly, the total capacity of power sources to 2030 is expected to be 130,000 MW, increasing by about 80,000 MW compared to 2020, an average of 8,000 MW per year, investing about 9 -10 billion USD, including the grid of about 13 -14 billion USD, can the national electricity and finance system be able to bear it? Note that, after half a century, we now have more than 50,000 MW of electricity!

Third: Likewise, the energy saving rate, 7 and 14%; The level of GHG emission reduction of 15 and 20%, respectively in 2030 and 2045, has not seen any evidence and explanation, after these expenditures all require huge human resources!

In terms of demand, the structure of the energy source in general and the national power source in particular in the next few decades is very important, it should be studied and calculated systematically and carefully. To calculate and determine this content, according to the Planning Law, we need to base on the results of building the National Strategy and Planning for long-term socio-economic development up to 2040 – 2045 (it is known that construction started two years ago. year, but have not seen published); Since then, building energy development scenarios with many different assumptions, but currently the Strategy, Socio-Economic Plan has not been announced, this is a great difficulty.